US Durable Goods Orders Explained: Business Investment and Gold

What is US durable goods orders?

US durable goods orders is a monthly report from the US Census Bureau. It counts new orders placed with US manufacturers for goods meant to last three years or more. That covers a wide range, from aircraft and machinery to computers and household appliances.

The headline number is the total value of new orders. Traders also watch the detail underneath. The most closely followed part is orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft. In plain words, that is business spending on equipment, stripped of the volatile defense and aircraft pieces. Economists treat it as a read on business investment.

The report also splits orders into categories such as transportation, machinery and electrical equipment. It shows shipments and unfilled orders too. Because aircraft orders are large and lumpy, the headline can swing sharply from month to month. The core measure is usually steadier and tells a cleaner story about investment trends.

One practical point: the report is revised. The first estimate gets a preliminary update and later a fuller revision. Markets react most to the first print, but the revisions can matter for the underlying trend.

When is it released?

The report comes out once a month at 08:30 local time in New York. That is 12:30 GMT while New York is on summer time and 13:30 GMT the rest of the year. It usually lands a few weeks after the end of the reference month. Because the release time is fixed and known in advance, the market often positions ahead of it, and the first minutes after the print can be busy. The next scheduled releases are listed below.

Times from the official release schedule; the full list is in Fundora’s economic calendar.

Why it matters for gold and the dollar

Durable goods orders feed into the interest rate story, and that story drives both the dollar and gold. The chain works like this. A strong report suggests businesses are investing and demand is holding up. That can lift Treasury yields, because investors expect firmer growth and possibly tighter monetary policy. Higher yields raise the opportunity cost of holding gold, which pays no interest, and a firmer dollar makes gold more expensive for buyers in other currencies. Both forces usually weigh on gold.

A weak report works in the other direction. If orders fall short of expectations, growth worries can push yields lower and soften the dollar. Lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of gold, and a softer dollar makes it cheaper for foreign buyers. That combination usually supports gold.

The chain is not mechanical. Gold also responds to safe-haven demand, inflation expectations and positioning. If a weak report sparks fears about the economy, gold can rise on safety even while the dollar is firm. If a strong report is read as inflationary, gold can sometimes hold up. Treat the dollar and yield reaction as the main transmission channel, not the only one.

Context matters as much as the number. A reading that beats expectations during an easing cycle may get a muted reaction. The same reading during a tightening cycle can move markets harder. Always compare the figure with what was expected, not with the prior month alone.

How gold usually reacts

Over the last five releases, gold has moved meaningfully around this report. The median first-hour range was $35.2, and the median one-hour move was $28.3. The biggest one-hour move in that window was +$42.5. Gold rose twice and fell three times, which shows there is no fixed direction.

Gold (XAU/USD, US dollars per ounce) from the price at the release minute; Fundora's calculation from delayed market data. A dash: no 15-minute candles for that day.

The first-hour range after these releases was typically 1.7 times the same hour on ordinary days. That is a clear step up in activity, so a trader should expect wider swings than a normal hour. Among the 21 events Fundora tracks, this one ranks #7 by gold’s first-hour range. It is a notable mover, though not the largest on the calendar.

The individual releases show how varied the outcomes can be. On 28 May 2026, gold moved +$42.5 in the first hour with a first-hour range of $54.9. On 25 September 2026, it moved −$28.3 with a range of $31.2. In 3 of them, another release came out at the same minute, so the figures show both together. That is a key caveat: part of the move may belong to the other release.

The lesson for a trader is simple. Expect a larger-than-usual range, but do not assume a direction. If the figure beats expectations, gold usually faces pressure through the dollar and yields. If it misses, gold usually finds support. The actual outcome each time depends on the figure against expectations, the details underneath, and whatever else prints at the same moment.

How to prepare for the release

Know the exact time. The release is at 08:30 New York time, which shifts between 12:30 GMT and 13:30 GMT with daylight saving. Check the schedule rather than relying on memory, especially around the clock changes.

Expect wider spreads and slippage at the release. Liquidity can thin in the seconds around the print, and market orders may fill away from the price you saw. Plan for that rather than being surprised by it.

Size positions for the volatility, not for a quiet hour. The first-hour range has typically been well above an ordinary hour, so a stop that works in calm conditions may be too tight here. Place stops where the trade idea is invalidated, and make sure the position size keeps the risk acceptable if the stop is hit.

Consider waiting out the first minutes. The initial reaction can reverse as traders digest the details and the revisions. Many traders prefer to let the first candles form and then assess whether the move has structure. You do not have to trade the release at all.

Read the details, not just the headline. Aircraft and defense orders can distort the total. The core capital goods measure often tells a cleaner story about business investment. Also check whether another release lands at the same minute, because the move may not be about durable goods alone.

Keep a record of how gold, the dollar and yields behaved at past releases. Patterns are tendencies, not rules, but they help you build a realistic plan. None of this is