Trading Strategy Simulator
Enter your win rate, reward to risk and risk per trade to see how the strategy plays out across thousands of possible trade sequences: the maximum drawdown, the longest losing streaks, the range of profit and loss and, if you want, your odds of passing a prop firm challenge.
Simulating…
The simulation assumes every trade is independent of the last and that your numbers stay the same in the future. In real markets losses sometimes cluster, so real drawdowns can be deeper than these. In prop mode trades close one at a time and floating losses inside a trade are not counted; the daily limit is measured from each day’s starting balance and the trailing limit does not lock. Check your firm’s exact rules. Results are educational, not investment advice.
What the simulator does
A strategy’s statistics alone do not tell you the path your account will take. A 50% win rate at 1:2 reward to risk makes money on paper, but the order of wins and losses is different every time, and that order is what creates drawdowns. The simulator builds that order at random 5,000 times (the Monte Carlo method) and shows how far apart the typical, bad and good outcomes are.
The losing-streak table is worked out with exact maths and shows how many losses in a row are normal for the strategy. The risk table runs the same strategy at several risk sizes side by side and finds the largest risk that keeps the drawdown under your limit in 19 of every 20 paths.
How to read the numbers
- Median: half the paths ended better and half worse. It is more realistic than the average, which a few very good paths can pull up.
- Worst 1 in 20: only 5% of paths did worse. Plan your risk around this number, not the median.
- Max drawdown: the largest fall of the account from a peak to the trough after it, in percent.
- Stretch without a new high: how many trades it took for the account to get back to its previous highest balance.
- Profit factor: total profits divided by total losses. Above 1 means the strategy makes money on paper.
Prop challenge mode
With prop mode on, every path is a challenge: it passes when it reaches the profit target and fails when it hits the daily or the overall loss limit. The result shows how many times out of 100 attempts you pass, which limit causes most failures, and the smallest risk that gets close to the best pass rate. For a prop account choose the fixed amount under “More settings”, because most firms measure the loss limits from the starting balance.
Limits of the model
The model assumes your numbers are real, stay the same in the future, and that each trade is independent of the last. In practice a win rate from a few dozen trades is not precise, markets have runs of bad periods, and slippage and gaps make losses larger. Treat the numbers on this page as the least risk you face, not the most.
To turn the risk you choose into a position size use the position size calculator, and during a prop challenge check today’s room before the limits with the prop firm drawdown calculator.